Changes in Adolescent Fertility Across Municipalities in Nepal Between 2011 and 2016
Charlotte Greenbaum1, Samir K.2, Toshiko Kaneda1, Barbara Seligman1, Hari Dhonju3
1Population Reference Bureau, 2ADRI, Shanghai University, 3Digital Data System for Development

While Nepal’s fertility is approaching replacement level, national averages mask the complexity of fertility dynamics. Data from the 2016 Demographic Health Survey suggest variations in adolescent fertility across provinces, suggesting potential need for adolescent family planning programming in certain areas, but no local adolescent fertility estimates are available. This study’s objectives are to estimate adolescent fertility rates for the 753 municipalities in Nepal in 2011 and 2016 based on educational attainment, marital status, and community-level characteristics and to examine change over time to identify areas with high or increasing adolescent fertility. Our analyses in Nepal's seven provinces show that while adolescent fertility in some municipalities has decreased, most municipalities have experienced increasing or stagnant adolescent fertility. Analyzing adolescent fertility rates at the municipality level is essential for determining where efforts are needed to improve well-being and access to contraception, reduce adolescent fertility, and contribute to a potential demographic dividend.