Voting for Tomorrow: Climate Change, Environmental Concerns, and Green Voting
Roman Hoffmann1, Raya Muttarak2, Jonas Peisker3, Piero Stanig4
1Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, 2International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 3Vienna Institute of Demography, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, University of Vienna), 4Bocconi University

Mitigating climate change requires both private and collective action. It is therefore fundamental to understand the underlying drivers of public concerns and demands for political actions, which are reflected in voting outcomes. This study analyzes how immediate experiences with global warming influence environmental concerns and voting behavior using fixed effects panel-estimation methods. Combining high-resolution climatological data with regionally aggregated information about environmental concerns (harmonized 42 Eurobarometer surveys 2002-2019 for 34 countries) and European Parliamentary electoral outcomes across Europe (1990-2019, 11 countries), we find a significant and sizeable effect of temperature changes and heat anomalies on environmental concerns and voting outcomes. A one standard deviation increase in temperatures in a region raises the share of the population who perceive environmental issues as a priority by 1.3% and the share of green voters by 1.1%. In further analyses, we plan to further explore the role of demographic factors in explaining the relationships.