Projecting health trajectories in Europe using microsimulation
Guillaume Marois1, Arda Aktas2
1Asian Demographic Research Institute, Shanghai University, 2International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

This communication describes a microsimulation model called ATHLOS-Mic that projects the health of cohorts born before 1960 and a set of risk factors for the horizon 2060 for some European countries. Using data from SHARE-HD, we used parameters from statistical models to project dynamically changes in risks factors with a set of covariates and their impact on a health metric. The health metric is then used to modulate the probability of survival. A set of analytical scenarios are built showing the effect of risk factors on future health trajectories. Results show that driven by a better educational attainment, each generation will be healthier than the previous one at same age. In average, an individual of our base population will live about 18 more years, but only 5 in good health. Removing all risk factors would add 2 years of life, but 6 years in good health.