Drought and Migration: An analysis of the effects of climate change on temporary labor and return migration from a migrant-sending area
Adrienne Epstein, Emily Treleaven1, Nadia Diamond-Smith2
1University of Michigan, 2University of California, San Francisco

Although the relationship between climate change and migration has been explored in a number of settings, prior research has largely focused on out-migration and has not considered climate factors at the migrant destination. However, climate change may impact not only out migration but also return migration, particularly in settings where temporary labor migration and agricultural reliance are common. Using data from the Chitwan Valley Family Study, a panel study in a migrant-sending area in Nepal, we analyze the effect of drought at the neighborhood level on individual-level out migration and return migration among adult males. In mixed-effect discrete time regressions, we find that neighborhood drought is positively associated with out-migration and negatively associated with return migration. Next, we will determine whether this relationship is also driven by the drought status of the migrant destination. These findings contribute to our understanding of the impacts of precipitation anomalies on migration patterns.